There are 2 different metrics that assess your COVID19 county risk level with low to high scores and could put your entire county (including kids) right back in masks . One metric is out of the CDC and the other is out of our New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH).
The CALI (COVID Activity Level Index) is a trash metric born from the amateurs from the Department of Health (DOH), rolled out early 2020 and uses three metrics to determine county and state risk:
Case rates per 100k, 7 day average based on electronic submission from NJ LABS administering the PCR test. Should a patient have more than one positive specimen, only the first one is included.
Percent CLI (COVID-Like Illness) per 7 day average from emergency department data is collected via EpiCenter (i.e. NJDOH syndromic surveillance). COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. With the intention to focus on CLI rather than Influenza-like illness the diagnosis of another specified respiratory pathogen (influenza, parainfluenza and RSV) is excluded.
Percent Positivity of tests on 7 day average, total positive COVID-19 PCR tests divided by all COVID-19 PCR tests performed.
NJDOH CALI
Contrast this with what the CDC is now using to measure COVID activity based on a conditional approach that takes into account 2 metrics in hospitalization:
COVID-19 Cases based on 7 day total (<200 vs. >=200) per 100K
COVID-19 Total hospital admissions per 100K in a 7 day period
Percent staffed inpatient beds occupied by Covid-19 patients (7 day average)
Overall new cases per 100k in a 7 day period
CDC
Its obvious that there will be a conflict between NJ’s CALI metric and the CDC. There will be a point CALI will call for masking kids when the CDC will not.
The CALI metric was made to keep a false sense of fear in the public, by using metrics that inflate the severity index of COVID beyond what is reasonable.
For example, the CDC recognizes that to consider high risk levels when there are >200 cases per 100k (in 7 days) in the county, AND the hospital admissions >=10% or filled COVID beds >=10%. Meanwhile, NJ CALI considers 10 cases per 100K in a week to be at severe levels.
The CALI doesn't take case severity or hospitalizations into account. We know the COVID PCR tests have a high false positive rate, especially when you count asymptomatic people. The CALI score makes it more likely to go into a red alert for people who have the sniffles and are not hospitalized.
The CALI considers other NON-COVID19 diseases which falsely increases the probability of getting a high score during COLD and Flu Season when people are more likely to get tested.
Considering percent positivity in the CALI score, will increase the score during times when people are less likely to get tested.
Additionally troubling, getting to the GREEN/LOW level is next to impossible when using the CALI score.
What's especially comical is at the bottom of the CALI, it says the DOH developed the thresholds using the CDC and it links to this new CDC guidance. But it has nothing to do with new CDC guidance.
Why does this ridiculous NJ chart matter?
Superintendents are still using this asinine instrument to make decisions for our kids. Some Districts are changing their masking and quarantining policies depending on CALI levels.
Contact your school Board and tell them to use CDC metrics to determine COVID activity levels. Tell them engage the NJDOH and insist that CALI is a poor instrument and doesn't follow CDC guidance.
You would think that when the CDC changed their masking guidance for the country and released new metrics to determine when masks are 'recommended', the NJDOH would drop their garbage CALI report. However there is no reason for the politically influenced DOH to do this, they are looking for any excuse to slap the masks back on the kids. If we agree to this nonsense, our kids will be masked from November to February, every year, for the rest of their school career.
Besides, the NJDOH has no confidence in their metric or we would have been “back to normal” (yellow zone) by Memorial Day 2020. But, I remember being locked down, unable to go to the park and still being forced to wear a mask by mandate.
I’d like to thank my girl M for helping me write this joint article. I have limited time and she really gets it!
Have a look at these blog posts from this attorney and rabbi in Passaic. He explains that it's not about the test, it's about Testing, as an endless tool of enslavement to constantly monitor people, control their access to society, and create a Medical State in America where all life revolves around new disease crises, pretend protection, stratification of humans by medical status, etc. Endless, continual testing planned.
Bottom line, the medical state is ramping up, not down, despite brief reprieves.
https://www.passaicclarity.org/2022/03/22/why-testing-is-the-real-trap-part-9/ (there are also links to parts 1 - 8.
I greatly appreciate your research and analysis, because it's one of a sane and intelligent person who's highly educated. The issue is that we are dealing with the criminally insane who are inhumane and seem to have bizarre totalitarian objectives, and no logic, no evidence, is of interest much less of value. I will speak up and I do, but mass civil disobedience is really the only thing that will stop this train. Our entire Congress, every single member of the Administration, MUST KNOW the full con of Covid from A to Z, the treatments that do work, the hospital protocols that are killing, the corruption, deceit and illegal activities of every senior member of all of our 3-letter health agencies (and 3 letter "I" agencies) all of which are not part of the constitution and not elected, the depraved sadistic actions of our drug companies and their financial incentives, conflicts of interest with health agencies and duplicity, and damage to children, yet the vast vast majority are doing nothing. A minority, and a small one, can make the difference, and it's us and it's saying "sorry, no thank you, no." They want us to get tired, but we have to tire them.
I received an email from our Superintendent two weeks ago. Dear Dumont School Community:
Please be advised that consistent with the trends within Bergen County and the State, our District has experienced a significant uptick in positive COVID-19 cases in the last few weeks. Additionally, our County and most of the State is currently in ORANGE or “HIGH” level of transmission, according to the Weekly CALI report that was released yesterday.
I finally had time to respond to her. I sent her and the entire BOE this information you posted so THANK YOU!